USDA forecasts record corn and soybean yields

By Editor | August 27, 2024 |

USDA predicted record-high corn and soybean yields for Illinois and the nation in its Aug. 12 crop production report. But this stretch in Stark County is a reminder that there’s a long road to go before harvest begins in earnest. (Photo by Catrina Rawson of FarmWeek)

By RHIANNON BRANCH
FarmWeek
Record high corn and soybean yield estimates headlined the USDA’s August crop production report.
The agency forecasted a national average corn yield of 183.1 bushels per acre (bpa), up 5.8 from 2023, and a national average soybean yield of 53.2 bpa, up 2.6 bushels from last season.
The state average yield estimates for Illinois are also a record high at 225 bpa for corn and 66 bpa for soybeans.
“Upon initial observation, of course, the market looked a little bit spooked by the fact that you had the corn yield come in at 183. That’s a pretty good-sized yield,” Matt Bennett with AgMarket.net told FarmWeek. “But then you look, and they lowered planted and harvested acres.”
Early data from the Farm Service Agency prompted acreage adjustments, unusual for the August report. USDA now pegs corn planted area at 90.7 million acres, down from 91.5 million in July, and harvested area at 82.7 million acres, down from 83.4 million last month.
The acreage adjustments show USDA understands concerns for the crop in some growing areas, Bennett noted.
“That corridor in southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa certainly is going to have some challenges on stuff that got planted. You’re going to lose some harvested percentage just simply due to a lot of flooding and ponding issues,” he said.
The acreage adjustment actually lowered ending corn stocks from last month to 2.07 billion bushels. U.S. corn production is now seen at 15.1 billion bushels, down 1% from last year.
“So, a bit of a surprise that overall production goes down somewhat with that great big yield on corn.”
It was a different story for soybeans, however, with production now pegged at a record 4.59 billion bushels, up 10%. Soybean planted area is seen at 87.1 million acres, up from 86.1 million in July with harvested area estimated at 86.3 million acres, up from 85.3 million last month.
“Ending stocks for 2024-2025 came in at 560 million bushels, so that’s a big difference and looks plenty rich,” Bennett said. “It’s a bit of a head scratcher that the USDA has so much export demand built in because we have some of the smallest new-crop bookings that we’ve had in many years. So, we’ve certainly got to hope that the USDA sees something that we’re not currently seeing.”
Immediately following the report on Aug. 12, the corn market was lower then jumped a few cents higher while soybeans settled 20-plus cents lower, hurt by the big carryout number.
“So basically, the perception here is that maybe this situation in corn isn’t as bad as everyone thought even with this massive yield, because acreage has been reduced and demand is so strong,” Bennett said.
It is important to note that upcoming crop tours and in-field data collection by USDA will provide a more accurate picture of crop conditions and some combines will even be rolling by the time the next crop production report comes out.
“So, as we move towards September, we’ve got to understand that if you get a better handle on the crop, many times a big crop continues to get bigger,” the analyst added. “And if that’s the case, then they can certainly provide some pressure on the market in a situation where these markets have already obviously been quite depressed.”
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