Projected ag trade deficit climbs

By Editor | June 19, 2025 |

By TAMMIE SLOUP

FarmWeek

Photo by Catrina Rawson of FarmWeek
The U.S. ag trade deficit could climb to a record $49.5 billion this year.

A USDA trade outlook report forecasts the U.S. ag trade deficit to slightly climb from its previous quarterly projection.

The report, dated May 29 but not released until June 2, puts the ag trade deficit at $49.5 billion for fiscal year 2025, up from the $49 billion forecasted in February. The fiscal year runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.

U.S. ag exports are forecast at $170.5 billion while imports are estimated at $220 billion, according to the quarterly report.

USDA’s quarterly trade outlook did not include a written analysis, which is typically part of the report.

As for the delay, a USDA spokesperson said the report was released later because of internal review.

“The report was hung up in internal clearance process and was not finalized in time for its typical deadline,” USDA spokesperson Alec Varsamis said in a statement. “Given this report is not statutory as with many other reports USDA does, the department is undergoing a review of all of its non-statutory reports, including this one, to determine next steps.”

The $49.5 billion deficit would beat the previous record of $31.8 billion set in 2024.

The forecast for U.S. ag exports included:

Grain and feed export values at $37.9 billion, down from $38.8 billion in FY 2024 and up slightly from the February forecast for 2025.

Oilseeds and products exports at $33.2 billion, down from $36 billion in 2024 and up slightly from the February forecast.

Livestock, poultry and dairy exports a bit higher at $38.8 billion from $38.7 billion in 2024, but down $900 million from the February forecast.

Horticultural products to continue to climb year-over-year to $41.2 billion in 2025, up from $40.9 billion the previous year. However, the projection is slightly down from the February forecast.

Ethanol exports at $4.3 billion, an increase from $4.17 billion in 2024 and up slightly from the February forecast.

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump began announcing sweeping global tariffs, of which most have been paused or decreased.

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs that he announced in April were prompted by the “large and persistent trade deficit that is driven by the absence of reciprocity in our trade relationships and other harmful policies like currency manipulation and exorbitant value-added taxes perpetuated by other countries,” Trump said at the time.

Those tariffs have since been challenged in court and lawsuits are making their way through the judicial system.

The U.S. and China have been in a tit for tat with tariffs, but agreed to temporarily pause triple-digit tariffs for 90 days to “establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations.”

The 145% U.S. levy on most Chinese imports was reduced to 30% effective on May 14, while the 125% Chinese duties on U.S. goods dropped to 10%.

The USDA report forecasts agricultural exports to China at $18.5 billion, down $3.5 billion from the February forecast and a decrease of $7.2 billion from 2024.

The trade outlook also looked at world per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which is expected to reach 1.8% in calendar year 2025, dipping from 2.7% previously forecasted, according to USDA.

In the key emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China, per capita GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.6% on average in 2025 from 5% in 2024.

The next quarterly trade outlook is scheduled for release on Aug. 28. Read the full report at bit.ly/3Hoq2eE.

This story was distributed through a cooperative project between Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association. For more food and farming news, visit FarmWeekNow.com.