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When Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago, did you assume, like I did, that the Russian army, steeped in a history of eventually grinding down its opponents, would crush Ukraine in a matter of weeks? Well, it did not happen and it did not happen primarily because the Ukrainians have perfected the art of drone warfare. The truth is that drones are revolutionizing traditional concepts of warfare and like it or not, this development directly impacts us here in the US. So let’s take a brief look at what drones are capable of doing on the battlefield as we assess the extent to which drones are impacting our national security.
A good place to start might be a book by Donald Elton entitled “Drone Wars—The Future of Conflict.” At the outset of the book, Elton discusses how, over centuries of warfare, new inventions and concepts revolutionized how wars were fought. For example, the switch from the use of bronze to the use of iron, the switch from bows, arrows and spears to gun powder, and the development of nuclear weaponry have all radically changed not only the art of war but world politics as well. And now, with the perfection of the drone as a major tool in modern warfare, Elton believes we may be on the doorstep of radical changes in both how wars are fought and in world politics as well.
The Ukraine-Russian War has resulted in a fast-forward development of drones and what they can do on the battlefield all without direct human involvement. For example, there are “loitering” drones, sometimes referred to as “Kamikaze” drones, that can now arrive at a specific location and hover for hours until their target arrives on the scene before they spring into action. This occurred in 2020 with the assassination of General Oasen Soleimani, the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as he exited an airplane at the Baghdad airport. This particular loitering drone was outfitted with facial recognition software and some hellfire rockets that were triggered when he showed his face in the doorway of the plane. Another example of drone sophistication is the RQ Global Hawk, a drone that is capable of spending 30 hours in the air, traveling 12,000 miles, and being able to “see” through clouds and darkness and read a license plate number from 60,000 feet above the target. Then we have the “nano drones” that are so small that they can get inside a building (or home) through the ventilation system, conduct surveillance of the situation inside and with the help of behavior-based algorithms, make tactical adjustments on the spot on how to accomplish the mission, whether it be surveillance or something more significant, such as an assassination or the detonation of a bomb.
Today, drones can be launched in mass or swarms, either to decoy or to actually overwhelm a radar system. They can be unbelievably easy to construct, even in a garage or tent, and the cost per unit is so much cheaper than building a tank but just as destructive as a tank. This means you have the potential for a small group of people here in our own country being capable of launching drones that can go anywhere and create havoc and destruction, all without any accountability for the persons who launched them—a true strategic ambiguity.
For years, this country has been blessed with the fact that we have oceans on the east and west sides of our borders that until now, have prevented the invasions that have plagued European countries for years. But the emergence of the drone certainly changes all that. Borders and oceans are much less of a factor in today’s military strategic planning.
Note: As I am writing this column, it was announced on the news today that Iran recently delivered hundreds of drones to Cuba. I have no way of confirming this allegation, but as you can see, if this is true, we may be more vulnerable for a drone attack than ever.
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■ Bill Hoagland has practiced law in Alton for more than 50 years, but he has spent more than 70 years hunting, fishing and generally being in the great outdoors. His wife, Annie, shares his love of the outdoor life. Much of their spare time is spent on their farm in Calhoun County. Bill can be reached at [email protected].
